Deposits360°® Monthly Industry Review
This month’s Review highlights emerging deposit trends and signals in DCG's Deposits360° Cross-Institution Analytics database and deposit pricing/volume models.
The Fed Hikes into a Already-Rising Curve
On September 16, the Fed raised its policy rate by 25bp to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023 and the end of a hold that had been in place since December 2025. The move landed on a curve that had already been transitioning from U-shaped to upward-sloping.
Compared to a year ago, the current Treasury yield curve shows meaningful increases beyond the very short end, particularly from 1 to 5 years. These are the tenors that impact CD pricing, and recent increases have set in motion an upward wave of CD pricing throughout the industry. Over the quarter ending in August, the average CD origination rate jumped by 12bp from 3.30% to 3.42%, and this increase occurred before the recent Fed hike. Looking ahead, DCG’s models are forecasting the average CD origination rate to climb another 43bp over the next 12 months as the September hike and higher yields continue to flow through.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury; Darling Consulting Group, all institutions that reported Augusts 2026 data into Deposits360°®
Depositors Extend, but Balances Stay Flat
As CD rates rise with the steepening yield curve, the data indicates that depositors are shifting funds to longer-term CDs. Over the past quarter, the 18–23-month bucket recorded the strongest growth, while both the shortest-term (sub-12-month) and longest-term (60+ months) buckets contracted.
Source: Darling Consulting Group, all institutions that reported Augusts 2026 data into Deposits360°®
This shift toward longer terms has not yet translated into overall CD growth. Although institutions are repricing CD portfolios higher and encouraging customers to move farther out on the curve, DCG’s Cross Institution data continues to show CD balances remaining flat-to-slightly lower. Non-maturity deposits were also slightly lower over the last month.
Source: Darling Consulting Group, all institutions that reported Augusts 2026 data into Deposits360°®
Funded vs. Retained CD Rates
Given near-term expectations that CD pricing levels will increase, institutions will need to identify whether they want to grow or simply maintain balances. DCG data shows a meaningful spread between the rates paid to fund new CDs and the rates paid to retain existing CDs. When we look at August data (before the recent bond market selloff), we see spreads of 29bp–59bp across terms. These spreads will likely widen given the changes in the yield curve, with some markets already seeing new CD offerings ranging from 4.50% to the low 5s.
Source: Darling Consulting Group, all institutions that reported Augusts 2026 data into Deposits360°®
Deposits360° users can leverage their institution-specific funded vs. retained rates and canvass competitor pricing to effectively refine pricing strategies and help pursue growth objectives.
Deposits360° Balance Forecast
Deposits360° Cross Institution forecast models are projecting non-maturity deposits to grow at an annualized rate of about 3% over the next 12 months. However, if market expectations for further rate hikes materialize into 2027, growth would be muted. DCG models are projecting only 1% growth in non-maturity balances if the Fed raises rates by 100bp through Q3 2027.
On the CD side, while balances have been flat year-to-date, DCG expects growth ahead as institutions increase offering rates across the CD pricing curve. This should lift total deposit growth to roughly 4% if rates remain close to current levels. Even in the +100bp scenario, total deposit growth holds near 4% because CD growth offsets slower NMD growth.
Source: Darling Consulting Group, Deposits360°®
Retention is getting more expensive, and growth even more so. If rates move higher, pricing strategy will matter more than ever.
DCG will continue to track these trends in Deposits360° and share insights as they develop.
To learn more about how DCG's Cross-Institution Analytics can help drive strategic decision-making, click here.
© 2026 Darling Consulting Group, Inc.
